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You Can Bet On It!

1 June 2003

As long as humans roam the Earth there will always be two kinds of people. Those that take advantage of others, and suckers that allow themselves to be taken advantage of.

The ones' that take advantage are always looking for an edge and pouncing unmercifully on their victim's weakness. At times they show their true colors and unless you are totally under their influence you should be able to recognize the signals and act accordingly. That is, take your money and run. I think that many more people fall into the latter category. I see it and hear it all of the time.

It seems to be mostly prevalent in the race and sportsbook. A guy tells his buddy that this game is a so-called lock. It can't lose! Then when the inevitable happens and the game tanks, all of the excuses begin. "If the quarterback didn't throw that interception in the end zone, they would have easily covered. That changed the entire momentum of the game", or "How does a pro miss a 22 yard field goal?"

The point is the sucker took a wrong turn when he heard that the game was a lock. True, sometimes that game will win and cover. But the point is certain things happen during the course of the game that make the outcome less predictable than is suggested.

Don't get me wrong, race and sports betting can be beat There are a select minority that work very hard at it and have the intelligence to comprehend all the statistics and the nuances of money management and every other aspect of the exercise.

That is not to say that all of the people that bet sports that don't win are suckers. That's not how I view them. In most cases they are betting their money recreationally and taking a shot. They hope to win and in the grandest tradition of gamblers everywhere they are putting their money where their opinions are. Nothing wrong with that.

Here we are in the year 2003 and people still say that, "this game is a lock." Going into the game they exude a certain confidence reminiscent of a child walking on thin ice, totally oblivious as to the dangers that await them. In the next few months you will be seeing advertisements that will tout football games that are guaranteed and all you have to do is call a certain 800 or 900 number. It's just as easy as that! Right, and I have some choice land in the Everglades that is going to be developed into a five star hotel. Use your common sense folks, just because a game may look good to you, doesn't necessarily mean that it will definitely win. The linesmaker will take all of that into account before they put out the number on the game.

If the tout was so smart and could win so easily why on Earth would they share that information with you for $25 or less? Doesn't make sense does it? A few years ago I made an offer to anyone claiming that they could win at a 75% rate to back it up with cash. I offered to book any bet up to one million dollars and I would give them 2/1 odds. The money would be put in escrow and they would pick 100 college or pro football games sides or totals against the Las Vegas line. All they would have to do is win 75 of them. I never heard from any of these so called experts, nor did I expect to.

The offer is still open.

Be aware and beware of claims and of those around you that tout you about a lock game. Almost as bad as losing your money is the inevitable laundry list of excuses that you will have to endure from the tout themselves after you rip up your worthless ticket. Consider yourself warned!

"Games in which all may win, such games remain as yet in this world uninvented." Herman Melville The Confidence Man (1857)

As Always…Good Luck!

Larry Grossman

Larry Grossman is host and producer of Las Vegas' most popular gaming and handicapping radio show, "You Can Bet On It." Since 1989 he has interviewed World Champion poker players that include Amarillo Slim, Puggy Pearson, and Tom McEvoy. Regular guests during the football season include Lem Banker, Mike Lee, Mort Olshan, and Andy Iskoe.

During the 1997 and 1998 season, Grossman hosted a nationally televised show that featured many of the nations' top handicappers.

Larry Grossman is the author of two books, "You Can Bet On It" Volume 1 - Casino Games and Volume 2 - Sports Betting. He is a regular columnist for many gaming publications. Larry has hosted and produced handicapping seminars in Las Vegas. Visit AudioVegas.com to listen to archives of his "You Can Bet On it" radio show.

Larry Grossman Websites:

www.AudioVegas.com

Books by Larry Grossman:

You Can Bet On It! -- Volume 1: Casino Games
Larry Grossman
Larry Grossman is host and producer of Las Vegas' most popular gaming and handicapping radio show, "You Can Bet On It." Since 1989 he has interviewed World Champion poker players that include Amarillo Slim, Puggy Pearson, and Tom McEvoy. Regular guests during the football season include Lem Banker, Mike Lee, Mort Olshan, and Andy Iskoe.

During the 1997 and 1998 season, Grossman hosted a nationally televised show that featured many of the nations' top handicappers.

Larry Grossman is the author of two books, "You Can Bet On It" Volume 1 - Casino Games and Volume 2 - Sports Betting. He is a regular columnist for many gaming publications. Larry has hosted and produced handicapping seminars in Las Vegas. Visit AudioVegas.com to listen to archives of his "You Can Bet On it" radio show.

Larry Grossman Websites:

www.AudioVegas.com

Books by Larry Grossman:

You Can Bet On It! -- Volume 1: Casino Games